Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Stochastic epidemic models are a cornerstone of infectious disease epidemiology and are often used to study intervention scenarios. However, large run-to-run variability can make intervention effects difficult to estimate precisely. We revisit the epidemic Sellke construction, which assigns each individual an infection threshold for the cumulative infection hazard such that, conditional on the thresholds, the epidemic trajectory becomes deterministic. This enables coupling of simulations with and without an intervention, yielding low-variance effect estimates even when outcomes such as final size or peak incidence vary widely between runs. We develop an exact, event-driven implementation that maintains infection and recovery events in priority queues. Cumulative infection-hazard updates require O(log N) time per event, yielding overall complexity O(Elog N) for E events in a population of size N. The implementation achieves computational performance comparable to the classical Gillespie algorithm while naturally accommodating non-Markovian infectious periods and complex infectiousness profiles. We illustrate the approach using distance-dependent spread of avian influenza between poultry farms in the Netherlands and a multilayer population with households, schools, and workplaces. In both examples, coupling enables efficient within-run comparisons of intervention scenarios across stochastic realisations.

The incidence rate ratio R is the standard measure for comparing event rates in clinical trials and epidemiology. In vaccine trials, the vaccine efficacy is VE = 1 - R. When events are rare, the two arm counts are Poisson. The estimator of R is heteroskedastic: its sampling variance changes with the data. So no fixed-width interval covers correctly everywhere. The usual log-Wald interval is undefined at zero events and covers poorly at small counts. Early vaccine and drug-safety readouts fall in exactly this regime. We show that a single reparameterization collapses this bivariate problem to an effective one-parameter family with a quadratic variance function, whose variance-stabilizing transformation is 2 arcsinh(sqrt(R)). The reduction yields a closed-form confidence interval for R. Its two leading errors, a curvature bias and the variability of the estimated scale, each admit a closed-form correction with no tuning constants. In a Monte Carlo study of our seven arcsinh variants and five competitors, the +Curve+Stu variant covers within 0.002 of the nominal 0.95 for about 50 control and 5 treatment events. Its width is on par with the best competitor. It avoids the conservatism and zero-count breakdown of log-Wald and MOVER. For moderate counts, we recommend this interval; for sparser data, our Bar-Lev and Enis count-shift variant is more robust. The result is a ready-to-use, closed-form interval for the low-count regime. We illustrate it on early Covid-19 vaccine-efficacy readouts and provide reference implementations in R and Python.

Respiratory diseases cause considerable morbidity in autumn and winter and are a priority in public health monitoring. In Germany, they are subject to a number of surveillance systems, including both pathogen-specific and syndromic indicators. In this paper we present a collaborative multi-target and multi-model real-time forecasting system rolled out during the 2024/25 season, and discuss differences to earlier efforts carried out during the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of nine models were run to generate forecasts of general practitioner consultations for acute respiratory infections (ARI), hospitalizations for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and confirmed cases of seasonal influenza and RSV. As all indicators were subject to retrospective revisions, forecasting models were combined with a nowcasting step. Whenever multiple models were available for the same indicator, we combined them into an ensemble. Nowcasts showed convincing performance, even though for some models Christmas break effects led to an upward bias in early January. Forecasts were overall well-calibrated and most models outperformed simple benchmark models. These improvements were generally more substantial for age-stratified than pooled targets, and concentrated at lead times of two to three weeks. Anticipating the peak timing and magnitude proved to be challenging, with many models predicting too flat curves with a too early turnaround (e.g. already in late January rather than mid-February for SARI). The combined ensemble forecast was among the best-performing approaches, but unlike in previous related projects did not consistently outperform individual models. We conclude by discussing learnings on the organization of collaborative forecasting projects in post-COVID-19 times and the potential of AI-supported modelling.

Efficiently summarizing dietary records at scale remains a persistent bottleneck in nutritional epidemiology. We present FoodScribe, which translates free-text meal descriptions into quantitative nutrient profiles by combining ingredient parsing with nutrient retrieval by querying the USDA FoodData Central (FDC) database. Benchmarked using three LLM providers using Nutribench dataset, FoodScribe completed annotation of 3,807 meal descriptions in 2.5 hours, a task otherwise requiring substantial manual effort from trained nutritionists. FoodScribe achieved accuracy across macronutrient estimation (F1=0.79-0.89), with models performing better for protein than fat estimation. Application to a Mediterranean diet intervention cohort indicated dietary shifts consistent with the intervention pattern based on model-derived estimates. Integration with metabolomics data suggested that fiber and vegetable intake were positively associated with a fecal metabolite cluster.

This study presents ReCo (Research Cosmos), a self-configuring and self-extending agentic research framework for the biomedical domain. ReCo is orchestrated by a large language model that interacts with native computing tools, bundled Model Context Protocol (MCP) servers, structured skills, persistent project memory, and a desktop interface. Its bundled MCP servers provide biomedical analysis capabilities while serving as implementation paradigms for integrating new computational and AI frameworks. Structured skills encode procedures for environment configuration and framework ingestion, enabling ReCo to inspect repositories, manuscripts, or local codebases; identify dependencies and execution patterns; create isolated runtime environments; design and implement MCP interfaces. Self-extension was evaluated using five heterogeneous systems: the Merlin computed tomography foundation model, MAISI-v2 medical image synthesis framework, asari liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry workflow, DosimeTron agentic radiation-dosimetry platform, and Orthanc DICOM server. ReCo successfully operationalized all five systems and completed predefined functional evaluations. Re-hosted DosimeTron outputs demonstrated near-perfect agreement with the reference pipeline across 651 organ observations (Pearson correlation and Lin concordance correlation coefficient, 0.99999; mean absolute percentage difference, 0.37%). Notably, ReCo configured Orthanc as a PACS-like coordination layer, integrated it with DosimeTron, Merlin, and TotalSegmentator, and orchestrated data retrieval, analysis, and return of valid DICOM RTSTRUCT, RTDOSE, and Structured Report. ReCo provides a unified environment for configuring, documenting, and operationalizing heterogeneous biomedical frameworks, reducing technical barriers to the adoption and integration of emerging computational and AI methods. The official open-source ReCo GitHub repository is available at: https://github.com/eltzanis/ReCo

Abstract Background: Remote clinical reviews have become an integral component of contemporary nursing practice across community and acute care settings. Nurses increasingly make autonomous clinical decisions using telephone, video, and online/digital systems, often with limited sensory information and under conditions of uncertainty. However, empirical understanding of how nurses make clinical decisions via remote reviews remains limited. Aim: To explore and understand how registered nurses (RNs) make clinical decisions about patient care via remote reviews. Methods: A convergent mixed-methods design was employed. Quantitative data (analytic quantitative sample N=53) were collected using validated questionnaires that measured decision-making processes, physician-nurse collaboration, decision-making stress, and perceived decision-making ability. Qualitative data (N=23) were generated through semi-structured interviews. Data collection took place between October 2024 and April 2025. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation, and multiple regression. Qualitative data were analysed using framework analysis. Integration was achieved through pillar-building and theory-driven synthesis and illustrated by joint display tables. Results: Most nurses demonstrated a flexible decision-making style, integrating analytical and intuitive reasoning. Both analytical and intuitive processes were positively associated with perceived decision-making ability. Physician-nurse collaboration emerged as a strong predictor of decision-making confidence, while decision-related stress was not a significant predictor. Qualitative findings identified three themes: characteristics of remote review; making adaptive decisions shaped by both internal and external constraints and enablers; and external influencing factors. The integrated findings informed a theory-informed ICE framework to illustrate how nurses make clinical decisions via remote reviews. Conclusion: Remote clinical decision-making is a dynamic cognitive-environmental process rather than a purely individual cognitive act. The ICE framework conceptualises this interaction, extending existing decision-making theories to digitally mediated care. Impact: Understanding remote decision-making supports training design, clinical governance, and the development of Artificial Intelligence-enhanced decision-support tools grounded in ecological bounded rationality. Patient or Public Contribution: Patient and public representatives contributed to stakeholder discussions that informed the development of the interview topic guide and the theoretical model. Patients or members of the public were not involved in recruitment, data collection, analysis, interpretation of findings, or preparation of the manuscript. Keywords: clinical decision-making, remote reviews, telehealth, nursing, mixed methods, ecological bounded rationality

Background: University students experience substantial psychological well-being and body-image concerns, while scalable, personalized digital support remains underexamined in Malaysia. Artificial intelligence chatbots may deliver repeated lifestyle guidance, but the incremental value of personalization over structured chatbot support is uncertain. Objectives: This study evaluated changes in psychological well-being and body appreciation following a 12 week personalized AI-powered lifestyle intervention, NExGEN, among Malaysian university students. Methods: A two-arm, controlled, quasi-experimental pre-post study allocated 140 students aged 18 to 35 years by matched blocks to NExGEN (n = 70) or a structured-prompt ChatGPT control (n = 70). NExGEN generated adaptive weekly lifestyle actions from a 47-item onboarding assessment, whereas control participants received standardized weekly prompts covering the same lifestyle domains. Psychological well-being and body appreciation were assessed at baseline and week 12 using the World Health Organization-Five Well-Being Index and Body Appreciation Scale-2. Intention-to-treat linear mixed models estimated adjusted within-group changes and between-group differences in change, with Holm adjustment for the co-primary outcomes. Results: Week-12 assessments were completed by 121 participants (86.43%). In NExGEN, psychological well-being improved by an adjusted 8.68 points (95% CI, 6.22 to 11.14), z = 6.91, p < .001, and body appreciation improved by 0.17 points (95% CI, 0.10 to 0.24), z = 4.82, p < .001. However, between-group differences in change were not statistically significant for psychological well-being (2.87 points; 95% CI, -0.48 to 6.23; z = 1.68; Holm-adjusted p = .093) or body appreciation (0.10 points; 95% CI, 0.00 to 0.19; z = 1.99; Holm-adjusted p = .093). Median platform logins were 68.00 in NExGEN and 58.50 in control; mean acceptability scores were 3.92 and 3.59, respectively. Conclusions: NExGEN participation was associated with significant within-group improvements in psychological well-being and body appreciation, but personalized guidance did not demonstrate superiority over structured chatbot guidance. Because allocation was quasi-experimental, causal attribution remains limited. Randomized component-level trials are needed to determine whether personalization provides incremental benefit.

Minimally invasive endovascular procedures offer reduced surgical trauma, shorter recovery times, and improved outcomes, but rely on 2D fluoroscopic X-ray imaging, which provides limited depth perception and exposes patients and clinicians to ionizing radiation. Here we present an augmented reality (AR) system that fuses intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) and electromagnetic (EM) position tracking with preoperative computed tomography (CT) to produce an anatomically accurate, deformation-corrected navigational reference. A robotic device performs ECG-gated pullback of the IVUS probe, capturing 4D aortic motion across the cardiac cycle. We introduce a deep learning architecture for extracting vascular lumen boundaries and side-branch orifices from artifact-prone IVUS streams, and a semantically driven non-rigid CT-IVUS fusion pipeline robust to false positive landmarks. We evaluate the platform with trained surgeons in benchtop phantom studies and in-vivo ovine models, and demonstrate its application to fenestrated endovascular aneurysm repair (FEVAR). Compared to fluoroscopy alone, AR guidance significantly reduces cannulation time, radiation exposure, and cognitive workload, while improving procedural efficiency and safety. Our IVUS-EM and CT aortic datasets are released open source.

Objectives. Radiomics pipelines extract hundreds of quantitative features that are widely known to be redundant, but the structure of this redundancy is usually treated as a per-dataset nuisance to be pruned away. We tested the alternative hypothesis that a substantial number of feature-feature correlations are universal: they persist across patients and across anatomically distinct structures because they reflect shared mathematical and image-statistical properties of how the image is summarised, rather than properties of the tissue being imaged. Materials and Methods. We re-analysed the publicly available Radiomics Atlas Dataset of normal Abdominal and Pelvic CT (RADAPT), restricting the analysis to the 526 non-contrast-enhanced examinations of the 531-subject atlas and to the 107 original (non-filtered) PyRadiomics features. The 53 segmented structures were grouped into four broad anatomical categories -- bones, muscles, vessels, and parenchymal organs. RADAPT is distributed as one Excel file per structure, with patients as rows and features as columns. Within each structure file we z-score-normalised every feature across patients, computed the absolute Spearman correlation matrix, and retained edges with |{rho}| [&ge;] {tau} for {tau} in {0.70, 0.80, 0.90}. We then intersected the edge sets across all structure files to obtain a "universal" correlation graph, in which an edge survives only if it exceeds the threshold in every structure (each estimated across the full patient sample). Stable feature communities were defined as the maximal cliques of this graph. Robustness to patient sampling was tested by repeating the entire pipeline on five independent random splits of each file into two patient halves (10 sub-cohorts per threshold), and the implementation was independently reproduced in R. Results. Despite the strictness of the global-intersection criterion, 34, 24, and 14 stable feature communities survived at {tau} = 0.70, 0.80, and 0.90 respectively, with the largest cliques containing six members at {tau} = 0.70 and {tau} = 0.80 and five members at {tau} = 0.90. The community structure was clearly interpretable: separate cliques captured (i) variance-like intensity dispersion, (ii) long-run / low-frequency (coarse) texture, (iii) high gray-level texture, (iv) low gray-level texture, (v) volume and surface shape, and (vi) local-homogeneity and energy/entropy duals. On random-half resampling the exact-match recovery rate of these communities was 81.5 %, 86.7 %, and 80.7 % across the three thresholds; departures from exact recovery were almost always a single boundary feature added or dropped, consistent with finite-sample fluctuation of near-threshold edges rather than structural instability. The R re-implementation reproduced the Python results exactly. Conclusion. A substantial portion of radiomics feature collinearity is universal across patients and tissues. We distinguish two layers within it: trivial near-algebraic duals that are universal by construction, and non-trivial cross-matrix-family communities that are the genuine empirical finding. Together they provide an interpretable, definition-grounded basis for aggressive dimensionality reduction, for retrospectively reconciling apparently different feature selections in the literature, and for moving radiomics pipelines toward organ-agnostic, more reproducible models. Clinical relevance statement. Selecting a single representative feature from each universal community shrinks the original-feature space by roughly an order of magnitude without sacrificing biologically distinct information. For example, the five variance-family members (first-order Variance, GLCM SumSquares, GLCM ClusterTendency, GLDM and GLRLM GrayLevelVariance) can be replaced by a single representative, removing redundant degrees of freedom that would otherwise inflate model variance; and labelling each retained feature by its community lets two studies that selected different variance-family names be recognised as having found the same signal, simplifying model development and improving cross-cohort generalisability in clinical CT workflows.

Objectives To identify stakeholder-perceived design tensions in a two-sided marketplace for reusable digital therapeutics (DTx) software components and to use these tensions to propose alternative marketplace concepts. Methods We conducted 24 semi-structured interviews with digital health researchers and professionals. Data were analysed using hybrid deductive-inductive codebook thematic analysis. The Magic Triangle provided the initial deductive structure. One researcher coded all transcripts; a second independently applied the developing codebook to five transcripts to refine definitions and consistency. Seventeen parent themes were synthesized into 12 design tensions, which informed three author-generated marketplace concepts. Results Participants described trade-offs concerning target users and host, component scope and customization, quality labels, verification, geographic scope, pricing, interoperability, platform launch, risks and market niche. The resulting concepts emphasized a regional startup ecosystem, a research-oriented hybrid marketplace or a global marketplace with stricter entry requirements. Discussion The concepts combine the tensions in different ways and highlight competing priorities in governance, openness, assurance, scalability and early platform growth. Conclusion Stakeholders identified recurring design choices for a DTx software-component marketplace. The concepts provide hypotheses for prototyping and evaluation; the study did not test technical feasibility, market demand, regulatory acceptability or effects on development cost or time.

Controlled human infection models (CHIMs) are increasingly used in infectious disease research to study pathogen dynamics and evaluate interventions under controlled conditions. However, these studies are resource-intensive and involve ethical and safety constraints, making efficient study design critical. Dose-finding is a key early component in CHIMs, where the aim is to identify a challenge dose that achieves a target infection probability. Traditional rule-based designs are commonly used but can be inefficient, motivating the use of model-based adaptive approaches such as the Bayesian Continual Reassessment Method (CRM). Although CRM has been extensively studied and widely adopted in Phase I oncology trials for identifying the maximum tolerated dose of therapeutics, its application in CHIM settings remains limited, particularly when the endpoint of interest is infection. This tutorial provides step-by-step guidance for implementing a Bayesian CRM in dose-finding CHIMs, using an oropharyngeal Neisseria gonorrhoeae challenge as a motivating case study. The framework outlines key design components, including dose-grid specification, dose-response model, prior elicitation, Bayesian updating, decision rules, and stopping criteria, with particular emphasis on a clinically interpretable parameterisation. Trial operating characteristics are evaluated through simulation studies under multiple dose-response scenarios and prior-predictive analyses, and compared with a commonly used '3+3' type rule-based design. This work highlights the advantages of Bayesian model-based designs for dose-finding in CHIMs over classic rule-based designs and provides a structured, reproducible framework for implementing CRM, supporting their application in future CHIM studies.

We present FootNet, a 453-image multi-view smartphone foot dataset for binary foot segmentation, with expertannotated masks across six anatomical views (dorsal, medial, and plantar, both left and right). We benchmark four segmentation models under a controlled protocol: U-Net with a MobileNetV2 encoder achieves the best performance (IoU 0.9268, Dice 0.9608, 95 % CI [0.9209, 0.9320]); DeepLabV3 with MobileNetV3-Large scores IoU 0.8984 (Dice 0.9449); UNet++ with MobileNetV2 scores IoU 0.8913 (Dice 0.9391); and SAM ViT-B with oracle boundingbox prompt scores IoU 0.9219 on the matched 191-image subset. Bonferroni-corrected Wilcoxon signed-rank tests (k = 6 comparisons) show U-Net significantly outperforms DeepLab (p < 0.001, r = 0.638) and SAM ViT-B with oracle boundingbox (p = 0.005, r = 0.202); UNet++ does not significantly differ from DeepLab (p = 0.062). Connected-component postprocessing yields negligible benefit (mean {triangleup}IoU = +0.0003, 12 of 453 images improved). The extended dataset is available upon request

Purpose: Nonresponse to routinely collected patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) threatens the representativeness of aggregated data. We characterized patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors associated with PROMIS Global-10 nonresponse in routine radiation oncology care. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, all adults seen at five Mass General Brigham radiation oncology clinics over one year were included. The primary outcome was patient-level nonresponse, defined as never completing the portal-administered Global-10 versus completing it at least once. Using iterative mixed-effects logistic regression, we modeled patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors. Results: Among 12,214 patients, 71 providers, and five clinics, patient- and appointment-level response rates were 35.4% and 10.9%, with patient-level response ranging nearly fivefold across clinics (12.8% to 66.2%). In Model 1, male sex, lower education, not working, and recent surgery had higher odds of nonresponse, and longer time since diagnosis lower odds. After provider- and clinic-level factors were added, patient sex, education, and employment became nonsignificant, whereas recent surgery (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.97) and longer time since diagnosis (aOR 0.46 for >12 months) persisted. A provider's historical collection rate was protective but attenuated at the clinic level. There, a later program launch (aOR 0.29) and higher historical collection rate (aOR 0.79) correlated with lower nonresponse, whereas academic versus community setting did not. Conclusions: Nonresponse to routinely collected PROMs is a multilevel phenomenon driven substantially by clinic-level implementation factors, not patient characteristics alone. Because response rate is only a proxy for representativeness, PROMs programs and PRO-based performance measures should prioritize representative collection over volume.

The World Health Organization (WHO) validated Sri Lanka had eliminated lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem in 2016, the second country in Southeast Asia to attain this status. However, post-validation surveillance has identified sporadic cases of brugian filariasis. The reemergence of Brugia malayi infections in Sri Lanka warrants urgent investigations. Recent studies have shown that the parasite responsible for the reemergence is a novel zoonotic Brugia sp. maintained among dogs that is closely related but distinct to the human-infecting B. malayi species. The current study employed morphological and morphometric assessments, revealing that this novel zoonotic Brugia sp. is within the B. malayi morphological range. Molecular characterization of three genomic regions, the nuclear genomic region SLXI, the non-coding region HhaI, and the mitochondrial genomic region COXI confirmed it as a genetic variant more closely related to B. malayi than to B. pahangi. Phylogenetic analysis further indicated it as a distinct genomic variant, closely related to a B. malayi-like parasite reported from India. Notably, that same parasite was identified in infected humans, animals, and potential vector mosquitoes. This, together with the detection of both human and animal blood within the same brugian infective mosquitoes, and delineating the canine origin of the parasites in human infections, provides compelling evidence supporting zoonotic transmission of this parasite. To our knowledge, this is the first report demonstrating the presence of the same brugian parasite in humans, domestic animals, and potentially infective mosquitoes in Sri Lanka, supported by multi-genomic evidence. The recent identification of multiple potential mosquito vector species suggests that this parasite may have undergone adaptive changes, facilitating its ability to overcome the species barrier. These findings substantiate the long-held hypothesis of zoonotic transmission of the reemerged brugian parasite, highlighting significant implications for ongoing surveillance and control strategies.

Background and Aims The optimal treatment for first episodes and first recurrences of Clostridioides difficile infections (CDI) is unknown and there is emerging evidence for pulse and taper (P-T) regimens. Therefore, we sought to estimate the relative efficacy of treatment options. Methods MEDLINE and CENTRAL were searched from database inception to May 21, 2025 and unpublished conference abstracts were searched from recent infectious disease conferences. RCTs on the treatment of first episodes or first recurrences of CDI comparing fixed-dose or P-T regimens of fidaxomicin or vancomycin were included. The primary and secondary outcomes were 40- and 56-day CDI recurrence, respectively. A random-effects network meta-analysis on the risk ratio (RR) scale was conducted using a standard regimen (10-14 days) of vancomycin as the comparator. Treatments were ranked using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). Results 8 RCTs were included comprising a total of 2181 patients. For 40-day recurrence, fidaxomicin P-T had the highest probability of ranking best (RR=0.10, 95%Confidence Interval [95%CI]=0.10-0.49, SUCRA=1.00), followed by vancomycin P-T (RR=0.49, 95%CI=0.32-0.76, SUCRA=0.61), fixed-dose fidaxomicin (RR=0.61, 95%CI=0.49-0.76, SUCRA=0.39), and, finally, fixed-dose of vancomycin (SUCRA=0.00). The treatments ranked in the same order for 56-day recurrence, though only 3 RCTs reported on this timepoint. Conclusion Vancomycin P-T, fidaxomicin P-T, and fixed-dose fidaxomicin were all superior to a fixed-dose vancomycin. Head-to-head comparative effectiveness RCTs are needed to quantify their relative effect sizes of and impact on long-term prevention of recurrent CDI.

Background: International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes are often used in epidemiological studies to track disease rates over time. Objective: This evaluation of ICD-code-based algorithms for electronic medical record (EMR) studies of Alzheimers disease (AD) and related dementias (ADRD) examines the impact of incorporating Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) data as an additional source of diagnostic and treatment information in Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) EMR studies. Methods: We performed a chart review of 100 VA Million Veteran Program (MVP) participants to evaluate algorithm performance. We also assessed genetic associations across algorithms in a large MVP cohort (n=396k). Results: Adding CMS data increased the number of detected cases, sensitivity, and positive predictive value, but decreased specificity and negative predictive value. Genetic analyses showed that broader (ADRD/dementia) algorithms with just VA data performed similarly to narrow (AD-focused) algorithms incorporating both VA and CMS ICD codes. Additionally, narrow AD algorithms based solely on VA data yielded the highest ORs, indicating the largest proportion of late-onset AD cases. Conclusions: We recommend using a broad (ADRD) algorithm without CMS or medication data, particularly for epidemiological studies or a strict AD algorithm including CMS and medication cases for genetic discovery of late-onset AD associations in VA EMR, and a strict AD algorithm without CMS data for applications focused solely on AD and sensitive to misspecification. Careful evaluation of algorithm performance is warranted in different EMR systems, as ICD coding practices vary by institution, as demonstrated by this comparison of VA EMR and CMS data.

Background The 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak highlighted the critical need for robust genomic surveillance capabilities to track mpox virus (MPXV) evolution and transmission dynamics. Methods Building upon our established SARS-CoV-2 sequencing infrastructure, we implemented a Molecular Loop probe-based long-read sequencing approach using Pacific Biosciences Sequel II technology for comprehensive MPXV genomic surveillance across the United States (US). From August 2024 to June 2025, we generated 326 high-quality whole genome sequences from residual mpox-positive clinical specimens collected by Labcorp across all 10 US Department of Health and Human Services regions. Results Our analysis identified two samples containing clade Ib MPXV in January and June 2025 and captured shifting trends in clade IIb diversity, with 13 distinct lineages observed. We also identified multiple instances of large (~1.6-17.6kb) deletions proximal to the inverted terminal repeats in clade IIb genomes. APOBEC3 mutation analysis indicated substantial evidence of human-to-human transmission among both clades. Further, we observed significantly higher APOBEC3-associated SNPs per kilobase (P<0.001) in clade IIb genomic variable regions relative to their central conserved region. Our assay exhibited strong reproducibility across biological replicates from individual patients and accuracy was confirmed via parallel sequencing of select specimens by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) using metagenomic sequencing. We also demonstrated via custom simulation that our assay discriminates all known MPXV clades and lineages, including those we have not observed in the US. Conclusions Our integrated nationwide surveillance system facilitates real-time genomic tracking of outbreak evolution, with demonstrated capacity across SARS-CoV-2 and MPXV, positioning this platform for rapid deployment during future pathogen emergence.

Background: Monoclonal antibodies have emerged as a prophylactic strategy to prevent symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in immunocompromised individuals. However, the evolutionary and clinical implications of breakthrough infections under this regime remain unclear. Methods: A male in their 80s with a haematological/oncological diagnosis received a 2000 mg intravenous infusion of sotrovimab in March 2023 and was diagnosed with COVID-19 by RT-qPCR from a nasopharyngeal swab in August 2023. Weekly samples (n=24) were collected through February 2024 (171 days). All samples underwent whole-genome sequencing, with select mutations subjected to functional assessment. Findings: Sequencing identified the GE.1 lineage at all timepoints. An intra-host recombination event in ORF1ab (positions 8942-12458) was detected prior to 23 weeks post-detection, followed by a 14-fold increase in viral load (7.42e+06 to 1.00e+08 RNA copies/mL) and a marked shift in the viral population. E340D, a sotrovimab resistance mutation, was detected at low abundance (46%) within the first week post-infection, fluctuated over time, and was nearly fixed by week 15 (107 days) post-detection. We assessed five spike mutations - V36M, S98F, and V213G in the N-terminal domain, Y505P in the receptor-binding domain, and P681Q near the S1/S2 cleavage site - and additionally evaluated the impact of E340D. V36M conferred the highest infectivity across all cell lines, with the most significant effect in low-TMPRSS2 cells. While all mutations showed enhanced infectivity with the addition of E340D, the effect was most pronounced in mutations with lower baseline infectivity. The addition of E340D significantly decreased relative neutralizing titres for V36M, S98F, and V213G, enabling escape from neutralizing antibodies in XBB-responsive individuals, illustrating an enhanced phenotypic advantage. Patient neutralizing activity was absent pre-sotrovimab, and sotrovimab-induced neutralization was further compromised by selection of E340D. Interpretation: Sotrovimab pre-exposure prophylaxis in an immunocompromised patient did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection, and selected for resistant mutation E340D, with unexpected fitness consequences across non-receptor binding domain spike regions.

Background: Opioid use disorder (OUD) is heritable, yet most genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have focused on European populations, leaving the genetic architecture of OUD in non-European populations underexplored. Methods: We conducted GWAS of OUD across three ancestries using electronic health records and genomic data from 52,357 All of Us Research Program participants (8,912 cases; 43,445 matched opioid-exposed controls; 48.5% female). Participants were stratified into European (EUR), African (AFR), and Admixed American (AMR) ancestry groups for logistic regression GWAS, with independent replication in the Million Veteran Program. We then applied the deep-learning model AlphaGenome to predict the tissue-specific transcriptomic and splicing consequences of top risk variants across 13 reward-pathway brain regions. Results: We identified and replicated a novel DDX6 risk locus, alongside established OPRM1 and FURIN signals. AlphaGenome predicted the DDX6 regulatory allele downregulates the stress-resistance gene FOXR1 in the nucleus accumbens, while the protective OPRM1 variant (rs1799971) upregulates OPRM1 expression across reward networks. Other signals of interest included IL6R and SHISA9 (EUR); GHR (AFR); and ASTN2 (AMR). Conclusions: This study identifies DDX6 as a novel OUD risk locus, replicates associations with OPRM1 and FURIN, and highlights biologically plausible ancestry-specific signals in AFR and AMR populations. We also replicated top variants in an independent population. Finally, integrating GWAS with deep-learning annotations provides specific, localized biological hypotheses to guide future experimental validation and targeted therapeutics.

Estimating dengue force of infection (FOI) is essential for understanding transmission dynamics and targeting intervention programmes, yet surveillance data in endemic settings required for estimations are often incomplete, with varying formats. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical catalytic model that jointly fits age-stratified case data, aggregate case data, and seroprevalence surveys within a single framework, incorporating external covariates to improve parameter identifiability. Synthetic validation showed that covariates alone recovered accurate FOI point estimates even when most districts contributed only aggregate data, but did so with poorly calibrated uncertainty; anchoring the model with a single seroprevalence survey was necessary to bring credible interval coverage close to nominal. Applied to 128 districts across Java and Bali, Indonesia (2016-2024), the model revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity in FOI and reporting rates. Many districts in Java exceeded the WHO-suggested seroprevalence threshold for vaccine introduction, yet were classified as low-priority when using reported incidence as prioritisation criterion, particularly in areas with weak surveillance. Model-based seroprevalence estimation, integrating multiple data sources, offers a more consistent basis for identifying high-priority districts for vaccine introduction, and is less susceptible to surveillance bias than reported incidence.