Methods in Ecology and Evolution
○ Wiley
Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Methods in Ecology and Evolution's content profile, based on 160 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.16% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Galko, P.; Yisamaw, A.; Haugen, T.; Seiler, S.
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Background: Generative AI tools can support data-intensive research by writing code, drafting prose, searching analytical possibilities, and stress-testing claims. They can also produce false citations, drift between statistical specifications, and lose continuity across long investigations. This paper describes a practical workflow for using AI systems in empirical research while keeping discovery, verification, and accountability inspectable. Methods: We developed and applied a three-phase human-AI workflow to a case study of 14 elite Ethiopian distance runners. The dataset contained 22,605 GPS-segments collected across 97 consecutive days in late 2025, supplemented by venue and athlete metadata collected in the field. Phase 1 used an autonomous data-exploration tool to pre-filter the hypothesis space across five seeded research questions. Phase 2 used an AI system under direct human guidance to construct candidate findings into numerical claims, verification scripts, and draft text. Phase 3 used an independent AI system in an adversarial role to stress-test methods, statistics, prose, figures, and citations. The workflow was informed by Pearl's distinction between association, intervention, and counterfactual reasoning, with human judgement retained for research direction, interpretation, and final claims. Results: The workflow produced three empirical analyses and a documented correction process. The analyses estimated an altitude-to-sea-level pace correction of +0.10 min/km per 1,000 m at matched heart rate, showed why pooled altitude-surface regression was not identifiable within this venue system, documented method-dependence in heart-rate-based intensity classification, characterised within-venue route variation as a 64/36 path-fixed-to-trail-variable split with the Sululta label resolving into two functionally distinct sub-venues, and reframed the cohort's training through a 3x3x3 prescription lattice grounded in Ethiopian coaching practice. The adversarial phase identified several hallucinated citations, a terminology error between HC1 and cluster-robust standard errors, and several inconsistencies between prose, figures, and computed results. Verification scripts re-derived nearly all numerical claims from the cleaned lap-level data. Conclusions: The case study shows how researchers can organise AI-assisted empirical work so that candidate discovery, claim construction, independent stress-testing, and final accountability remain separated. The workflow did not remove the need for domain expertise or human judgement. Its value was in making the route from candidate finding to manuscript claim explicit, reproducible, and open to challenge. Trial registration: Not applicable.
McCormick, K. M.; Amarasena, N.; Guzzo, G.
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Background: Periodontitis is defined by cumulative, irreversible tissue destruction, yet population-based measurement typically relies on cross-sectional indicators derived from retained teeth. Destruction that occurred earlier in life, particularly disease severe enough to result in tooth loss, is structurally excluded from these measures, potentially leading to systematic underestimation of lifetime periodontal burden. Objective: To develop and evaluate a measurement framework that estimates lifetime periodontal burden from cross-sectional data by explicitly incorporating informative tooth loss under etiological uncertainty. Methods: Data were drawn from 10,324 adults aged [≥]30 years participating in the 20090-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) who completed full-mouth periodontal examination and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) testing. Lifetime periodontal burden was estimated by combining observed clinical attachment loss in retained teeth with probabilistic contributions from missing teeth, using three alternative age-stratified attribution schedules derived from epidemiological studies of periodontal extraction. Performance was compared with conventional measures of periodontal severity and extent using distributional analyses, correlations with HbA1c, discrimination of diabetes status, and relative importance analysis. Age-adjusted models were treated as sensitivity analyses. Results: Estimated lifetime periodontal burden exhibited strong, monotonic age gradients across glycemic categories, in contrast to more attenuated patterns observed for severity and extent. Across attribution schedules, lifetime burden showed stronger correlations with HbA1c ({rho} = 0.30-0.32) than conventional measures. In multivariable models including all indices, lifetime burden retained an independent association with HbA1c, whereas severity and extent contributed little unique information. Discriminative performance for diabetes status was consistently higher for lifetime burden than for conventional measures and remained stable across attribution schedules. Conclusions: Lifetime periodontal burden can be estimated from cross-sectional data by explicitly modelling informative tooth loss rather than restricting measurement to retained teeth. Incorporating historical tissue loss under uncertainty yields a more coherent representation of cumulative periodontal destruction than snapshot-based measures and provides a methodological basis for life-course-oriented periodontal epidemiology.
Obeng-Gyasi, E.
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Background: Mixture epidemiology deploys sophisticated estimators, Bayesian kernel machine regression with causal mediation analysis (BKMR-CMA), quantile G-computation (QGC), and parametric G-computation, alongside conventional regression. Comparative evaluations have assumed additive, non-mediated data-generating processes, leaving conditions under which estimator choice determines causal validity uncharacterized. Methods: We developed a simulation framework using military-relevant exposure distributions (metals, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances [PFAS], polychlorinated biphenyls [PCBs]) and allostatic load (AL) across three deployment tiers, with parameters drawn from military occupational health and contamination literature. Four data-generating processes were specified as directed acyclic graphs: direct effects with confounding (M1), full mediation through AL (M2), synergistic AL-exposure interaction (M3), and collider structure (M4). We evaluated ordinary least squares (OLS), QGC, G-computation, and BKMR-CMA on bias, root mean squared error, and 95% confidence interval coverage across 500 Monte Carlo replications at n = 500 and n = 1,000. Results: No estimator dominated across all mechanisms. Under M1, OLS and G-computation produced near-identical modest positive bias; BKMR-CMA achieved lower root mean squared error through kernel shrinkage. Under M2, BKMR-CMA exhibited severe positive bias for AL (mean bias = +0.579 SD units; coverage = 32.8%). Under M3, BKMR-CMA was the only estimator achieving nominal 95% coverage for AL (95.2%), while regression-based approaches fell to 83.6%. Under M4, G-computation produced persistent bias and near-zero coverage for lead, reflecting structural non-identification. Conclusions: Estimator validity is fundamentally mechanism-dependent. Researchers should base estimator choice on explicit causal assumptions about whether AL functions as confounder, mediator, moderator, or collider, particularly in military and occupational cohorts. We provide a mechanism-to-estimator mapping for applied researchers.
Nakagawa, S.; Yamamoto, A.
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To evaluate the international interoperability of food composition databases, we assessed the compatibility of seven national food composition tables with USDA FoodData Central (FDC) using the LLM-based matching method reported previously (Nakagawa and Yamamoto, 2026). Databases from four English-speaking countries (Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand), South Korea, and Japan were compared with 8,158 USDA FDC entries (SR Legacy and Foundation Foods, excluding Survey/FNDDS). Match rates varied by country (62.0-89.7%) and food category. After excluding six USDA categories unsuitable for cross-national comparison, 45.2% of the remaining 6,290 entries were not matched by any country. Canada showed the highest concordance, reflecting shared North American food supply. Japan and South Korea showed similar low coverage for vegetables and spices. These findings suggest that while USDA FDC represents a practical foundation for a globally comprehensive food composition database given its breadth, systematic incorporation of country-specific foods and classification schemes will be necessary to achieve true international interoperability.
Wilson, S. M. G.; Oliver, A.; Lemay, D. G.
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Background: Recent food-based recommendations for flavan-3-ols highlight a growing need to understand the breadth of our dietary polyphenol exposure. However, estimation of dietary polyphenol intake remains challenging, requiring custom computational tools that are often difficult to implement or not fully reproducible. Objective: We aimed to an automated, user-friendly tool to estimate polyphenol intake from diet recalls and records. Methods: We developed Polyphenol Estimator, a tool that processes dietary data from the Automated Self-Administered 24-Hour (ASA24) Dietary Assessment Tool or the Automated Multiple-Pass Method from the National Health and Examination Survey (NHANES). Polyphenol Estimator disaggregates foods using the FDA Food Disaggregation Database into ingredients, matches these ingredients to FooDB, and estimates polyphenol intake at the total, class, and compound level. Optionally, these polyphenol estimates can be used to calculate the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII). Polyphenol Estimator is freely available online (https://swi1.github.io/polyphenol_estimator) with a tutorial for users with limited programming experience. Results: To illustrate Polyphenol Estimator, we applied it to two days of diet recalls from adults ([≥] 20 years) in NHANES 2021-2023 (n = 2778). For 97.7% of participants, less than 2.5% of reported foods went unmapped, with 75.7% of participants having complete mappings. Total polyphenol intake was 517 +/- 439 (mean +/- SD) mg/1000 kcal, largely from green tea, coffee, black tea, apples, wine, oranges, and blueberries. At the class level, polyphenols classified as organooxygen compounds, flavonoids, and cinnamic acids and derivatives were top intake contributors. At the compound level, cyptochlorogenic acid, neocholorogenic acid, and caffeic acid were top contributors. Lastly, the DII was 1.4 +/- 1.9, indicating the average diet had proinflammatory potential. Conclusions: Polyphenol Estimator offers an automated method to obtain total, class, and compound-level polyphenol estimates from dietary data to aid future efforts to understand polyphenol intake exposures and their biological impact on health.
Long, H.; Gada, L.; Murray, L.; Laurence, T.; Hayward, A.; Finnie, T.
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Sex work is diverse and includes a broad range of people and settings. Over the last thirty years, a large proportion of public health emergencies of international concern (PHEIC) have involved infections transmitted through sexual or close contact and in sexual networks (WHO 2024). Sex workers can face increased disadvantage in relation to these public health emergencies. Given the significant health inequalities sex workers can face, they should be eligible to receive targeted and tailored health support to reduce health protection risks (Hester 2019; Jeal and Salisbury 2004a). However, they are often not explicitly eligible for targeted and tailored support due to a lack of information on incidence, prevalence of disease, and even more basic data such as reliable estimates of the number of sex workers in the UK. Accordingly, the aim of this paper is to determine a population size estimate, with uncertainty, that is more robust than those currently available. In this study, we apply Bayesian Evidence Synthesis to bring together historic estimation efforts with recent ONS National Population Estimates and Genito-Urinary Medicine Clinics Attendance Data (GUMCAD) from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). A key feature of our model is the embedding of uncertainty from each input study in model priors, hence propagating it through to our final estimate. The Bayesian evidence synthesis model estimated a total of 84,000 sex workers in the United Kingdom (95% credible interval: 49,000-130,000), representing 0.121% of the current UK population.
Kurz, E.; Valli, G.; Meyer, T.; Proger, S.; Schwesig, R.; Bartels, T.; Delank, K.-S.; Sack, I.; Aghamiry, H. S.
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Abstract Purpose: MyotonPRO (MTP) and time-harmonic elastography (THE) are increasingly used to assess muscle mechanical properties, yet they operate on fundamentally different physical principles. MTP measures composite MTP stiffness (N/m) through surface oscillations, while THE quantifies intrinsic shear modulus (THE stiffness, kPa) via propagating shear waves. This study aimed at systematically compare MTP and THE measurements in the vastus lateralis muscle across different contraction intensities and examine how the skin layer and subcutaneous fat (SLSF) thickness influence their relationship. Methods: Twenty-six healthy adults (15 males, 11 females; age 25 [SD 4] years) underwent MTP and THE measurements of the vastus lateralis at rest and during isometric contractions at 15% and 30% maximal voluntary contraction (MVC). Effects of contraction intensities on tissue properties were assessed using univariate analyses of variance with repeated measures. Associations between the different outcomes of THE and MTP technologies were explored using Pearson's correlations and partial correlation coefficients separately for each contraction intensity with adjustment of the SLSF thickness of participants. Results: Both technologies detected contraction intensity-dependent stiffening across all outcomes (p < 0.001). THE stiffness increased from 5.3 [1.2] kPa at rest to 15.6 [6.1] kPa at 30% MVC; THE wave attenuation increased from 0.83 [0.19] to 1.42 [0.36] s/m while MTP stiffness increased from 337.3 [49.3] N/m at rest to 529.4 [160.7] N/m at 30% MVC. Correlations between modalities were weak and condition-dependent. THE wave attenuation did not significantly correlate with any MTP outcome across conditions. Conclusion: MTP and THE detect contraction-induced stiffening through fundamentally different physical mechanisms and should not be regarded as interchangeable. Their correlation is modest at rest and breaks down (or reverses) during active contraction, with subcutaneous fat as a key modifying factor. Clinical trial number: Not applicable.
Alleman, T. W.; Van Wesemael, T.; Shanker, N.; Mietchen, M. S.; Loo, S.; Ajagbe, S. O.; Baetens, J. M.; Lemaitre, J.; Hill, A. L.; Truelove, S. A.; Bento, A. I.
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Hybrid mechanistic-statistical models offer interpretability and adaptability for short-term seasonal epidemic forecasting, but it remains unclear whether their accuracy depends more on increased biological complexity or on the assimilation of richer data. Using eight retrospective influenza seasons in North Carolina, we evaluate whether training on historical data and assimilating auxiliary emergency department (ED) visit data improves four-week-ahead hospital admission forecasts more than adding biological complexity (multi-subtype structure and cross-season immunity). Hierarchical Bayesian training on historical data improves accuracy by 22.4 % (95 % CI: 16.4-28.1 %), and inclusion of ED visit data yields a further 5.3 % (95 % CI: 3.0-7.6 %) improvement, whereas added biological complexity produces diminishing or null gains. We further observe a substitution effect in which ED visit data partially compensates for omitted biological structure. We deployed a simplified model variant in the 2025-2026 CDC FluSight Challenge and ranked among the top ensemble performers, supporting the robustness of Bayesian hierarchical training in real time. Together, these findings indicate that short-term forecast accuracy is driven more by historical learning and assimilating auxiliary signals than by biological fidelity, with implications for how forecasting systems should balance mechanistic complexity.
Fayette, L.; Brendel, K.; Mentre, F.
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Joint modelling of longitudinal data using non-linear mixed effects models and time-to-event outcomes provides a suitable framework to account for informative censoring when estimating biomarker dynamics and quantifying event risk using covariates and longitudinal trajectories. Their usefulness in clinical research depends on data collection design, particularly to precisely estimate the association (link) parameter between longitudinal and survival processes. However, optimal design strategies have so far been addressed separately for longitudinal and survival endpoints and remain unexplored for joint models. We propose two Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) computation methods for joint models, relying on Monte-Carlo integration over observations combined with either Markov Chains Monte-Carlo or Adaptive Gaussian Quadrature to integrate random effects. Their accuracy is assessed against clinical trial simulations in an oncological example based on the HORIZON III study with a tumour-growth-survival model including discrete and continuous covariates. We apply these methods to quantify the impact of follow-up duration, sampling richness, sample size, and covariate distribution on parameter uncertainty and test power. In our example, longitudinal-parameter uncertainty is barely affected by follow-up duration or sampling richness, whereas survival-parameter uncertainty decreases substantially from 1-year to 2-year follow-up. The number of subjects needed (NSN) to achieve <15\% uncertainty on the link parameter is comparable for a 2-year rich design and a 3-year sparse design. Optimal covariate distributions are stable across designs and systematically improve test power, outperforming longer and richer but non-optimised designs. These FIM-based methods accurately predict uncertainty and test powers, enabling design evaluation and NSN computation for joint-model-based clinical studies.
Hagan, J.
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Background. Cross-validation (CV) is widely used to estimate predictive performance, but can overestimate performance when applied at the observation level to repeated-measures data. When continuous predictor variables are measured repeatedly within subjects and the binary outcome is defined at the subject level, naive observation-level CV introduces data leakage through within-subject dependence, producing optimistically biased estimates of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The magnitude of this bias and the performance of alternative partitioning strategies have not been formally characterized for this data structure. Methods. Three CV strategies were compared for estimating subject-level AUROC in ridge logistic regression models: naive observation-level 10-fold CV, subject-level 10-fold CV, and leave-one-cluster-out (LOCO) CV. The framework was applied to a motivating clinical dataset of daily oxygenation measures and retinopathy of prematurity outcomes among 101 extremely low birth weight infants. A factorial simulation study was conducted across 162 parameter combinations varying cluster count (20-150), intraclass correlation (0.1-0.5), within-cluster autocorrelation (0.2-0.8), and outcome prevalence (10-35%), with 500 simulated datasets per condition (76,389 valid datasets total). Results. In the motivating dataset, naive CV produced optimism of +0.078 AUROC units for severe ROP prediction (15 events, 101 subjects) and +0.031 for any ROP prediction (48 events). Subject-level 10-fold CV closely approximated LOCO (deviation [≤] 0.015). In the simulation, naive CV optimism ranged from +0.039 to +0.204 across all conditions, increasing monotonically with higher ICC, higher autocorrelation, fewer clusters, and lower event rates. Subject-level 10-fold CV was essentially unbiased relative to LOCO across all 162 conditions (mean absolute deviation = 0.002). Conclusions. Naive observation-level CV meaningfully overestimates discriminative performance in the repeated-measures binary outcome setting and should not be used. Subject-level CV partitioning effectively eliminates this bias. Accordingly, subject-level partitioning should be considered essential, not optional, when validating prediction models using repeated-measures data with subject-level outcomes.
van Rassel, C. R.; Rummel, M.; MacInnis, M. J.
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This study examined the utility of HRV detrended fluctuation analysis alpha-1 (DFA1) to assess readiness-to-train and exercise durability under varying acute training loads. Nineteen trained cyclists completed two 20-minute time-trials (TT) under rested and fatigued conditions. DFA1 was measured during a standardized warm-up (WU), 20-min TT, and standardized cool-down (CD). Power output (PO) and DFA1 responses were compared across conditions, and associations with performance and fitness (W/kg) were examined. DFA1 values declined with increasing WU and CD exercise intensity (p<0.001) and were significantly attenuated following the 20-min TT (p<0.001). While DFA1 profiles did not differ significantly between rested and fatigued conditions, lower pre-TT DFA1 was associated with reduced TT performance (p=0.022; r=0.55), suggesting relevance to training readiness. Additionally, an 18% decline in DFA1 between 10- and 20-min during the TT (p=0.031), and lower post-TT values at matched intensities were observed (p<0.001), indicating physiological perturbation from the 20-min TT. Fitter participants exhibited lower DFA1 values during the 20-min TT (p<0.001; r=-0.77), suggesting a greater capacity to sustain physiological stress. While DFA1 is responsive to exercise intensity and stress, offering potential to assess training readiness and durability, more robust fatigue protocols are needed to validate DFA1 as training load monitoring tool.
Wittkopp, S.; Asachi, P.; Kazatsker, F.; Aleman, J. O.; Gordon, T.; Brook, R.; Thorpe, L.; Newman, J. D.
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Introduction Air pollution is a leading driver of cardiovascular disease with a growing body of literature implicating this in worse glucose homeostasis. Increases in fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) are associated with increased blood glucose and hemoglobin A1c across the glycemic spectrum from normoglycemia to prediabetes to all forms of diabetes. Despite strong evidence for positive associations of PM2.5 with dysglycemia, it remains unknown if reducing air pollution exposure through air filtration can effect improvements in glucose. This study aims to test the hypothesis that short-term, in-home air pollution reduction using high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filtration will improve blood sugar in adults with prediabetes. Methods and analysis This trial is a randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled trial of the effects of lowering air pollution exposure using HEPA filtration on cardiometabolic health in adults with prediabetes living in the New York City area. Participants will be randomly assigned to use bedroom air cleaners, or sham air cleaners, while measuring PM2.5 continuously for 1 month. The primary outcomes will be continuous glucose monitoring metrics measured before and after HEPA air filtration. Exploratory outcomes will include insulin resistance measures, serum biomarkers and transcriptomics measured before and after HEPA intervention. We will quantify effects of HEPA filtration with models using treatment arm (true versus sham filtration) as the independent variable. Secondary analyses will model continuous measures of PM2.5 as the independent variable. Ethics and Dissemination This study has undergone peer review; and the work was supported by Grant 2023-0214 from the Doris Duke Foundation, who had no other role in study design or implementation. The study was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05994937) prior to recruitment. Clinical Trials Clinical Trials NCT05994937; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05994937
Mantena, S. D.; Johnson, A.; Schuetz, N.; Tolas, A.; Montalvo, S.; Delgado-SanMartin, J.; Ramirez Posada, M.; Du, L.; Zhang, S.; Huynh, A. D.; Oppezzo, M.; King, A. C.; Schmiedmayer, P.; Lawrie, A.; Rodriguez, F.; Ashley, E.; Kim, D. S.
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Objective: Hispanic/Latinx populations in the U.S. experience higher rates of chronic disease linked to physical inactivity, yet digital health interventions remain largely inaccessible to more than 16 million Hispanic/Latinx adults with limited English proficiency. While large language models (LLMs) offer scalable personalization, their use in non-English behavioral coaching is unexplored. This study introduces MHC-Coach-ES, a Spanish-language LLM fine-tuned on the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of behavior change. Materials and Methods: We fine-tuned Llama 3-70B-Instruct using a two-stage pipeline. First, the model was adapted to Spanish health and motivational language using a 2.21-million-token corpus. Second, it was instruction-tuned on 3,268 translated human written messages to align the model with the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of Behavioral Change. We compared MHC-Coach-ES with Llama 3-70B-Instruct and translated human-expert messages using a forced-choice preference survey (N = 77) and blinded expert review (N = 2). Results: Spanish-speaking participants significantly preferred MHC-Coach-ES messages over translated human-expert messages (81% preference, P<0.001). Linguistic analysis showed that MHC-Coach-ES produced more temporally anchored messages than the base model (65% vs. 20%), while maintaining readability. In blinded evaluation, clinical experts rated MHC-Coach-ES higher for alignment with Transtheoretical Model stages than human-expert messages (4.83 vs. 4.38 out of 5). The base model also outperformed translated expert messages across preference and expert ratings. Conclusions: Generative AI can operationalize behavioral science frameworks in Spanish, offering a scalable approach to reducing health disparities. The strong performance of both MHC-Coach-ES and the base model highlights the promise of generative and personalized approaches over translation-based localization for theory-driven behavioral interventions.
Kantan, P. R.; Hansen, M. B.; Foldager, J. J.; Fjeldgaard, F. S.; Dahl, S.; Spaich, E. G.
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Purpose: To identify, through iterative user-centered design, the auditory biofeedback requirements and sound preferences supporting gait training in children with cerebral palsy (CP), and to determine which feedback variables, sound mappings, and sound types yield clinically viable and movement-interpretable paradigms. Methods: The iterative process spanned two prototype phases. Prototype A comprised seven paradigms demonstrated to two experienced physiotherapists (Workshop 1A). Two of these were subsequently discarded owing to poor sound-movement interpretability and two were modified. Six paradigms were added to Prototype B, demonstrated to four children, five parents, and one therapist (Workshop 1B) and two therapists (Workshop 2B). Data were analyzed using systematic text condensation. Results: Within-child sound preferences varied with energy level and sensory state on a given day. Sound-movement interpretability tended to suffer for paradigms with greater acoustic complexity (e.g. computer-generated music). Therapists endorsed a repertoire spanning both movement quality and movement quantity targets. Participants independently proposed paradigms rewarding restrained and controlled movement, a feedback category absent from the current prototype. Conclusions: Session-level calibration is preferable to fixed sound profiles, requiring real-time interface support for paradigm adjustment. Acoustic complexity must remain subordinate to movement-sound interpretability. Paradigms targeting movement restraint are a development priority unaddressed in the literature.
Kurt, F.; Subasi, A.
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Background: Traditional diagnostic models lack explainability, while multimodal language models prone to hallucination remain unsafe for medical education. An interactive, risk-free artificial intelligence framework is required to serve as a reliable clinical mentor for radiology trainees. Methods: We propose a multi-agent architecture decoupling deterministic image analysis from generative consultation. Specialized computer vision models perform anatomical localization and pathological segmentation. These quantitative outputs are synthesized into a structured payload, which grounds a locally hosted large language model (LLaVA 7B) using strict prompt guardrails and prerequisite protocols. Results: The system effectively eliminates visual hallucinations by intercepting unanchored queries. The artificial intelligence tutor successfully contextualizes spatial anomalies and baseline metrics, generating accurate conversational explanations and formally structured radiology reports while strictly enforcing medical safety disclaimers. Discussion and Conclusion: By anchoring language generation exclusively to verified algorithmic realities, this framework transforms opaque diagnostic models into safe, interactive educational simulators. This establishes a highly reliable paradigm for integrating explainable artificial intelligence into medical training.
MacSharry, J.; Tonda, A.; Lopez-Rincon, A.
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Andes orthohantavirus (ANDV), the primary etiological agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in South America, is uniquely capable of limited human-to-human transmission, posing a significant challenge for outbreak control. Recent events, including the 2018-2019 Epuyen outbreak and the 2026 MV Hondius incident, underscore the need for rapid, lineage-specific molecular diagnostics. In this study, we present an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven framework for the design of diagnostic primers targeting the S genomic segment of the Epuyen lineage. Using an evolutionary algorithm integrated with thermodynamic evaluation via Primer3Plus, candidate primers were optimized to maximize classification accuracy while satisfying stringent biochemical constraints. The resulting primer set enables amplification of lineage-specific regions suitable for molecular characterization and surveillance. In silico validation demonstrates that the proposed primers achieve perfect discrimination between 2026 outbreak sequences and other ANDV variants. Furthermore, in silico comparison with standard protocol-based primers reveals substantially reduced sensitivity and specificity in the latter, highlighting the limitations of static diagnostic designs when applied to evolving viral populations. Overall, this work demonstrates that AI-assisted primer design provides a robust and adaptable strategy to improve viral detection, enhance outbreak tracking, and support timely public health interventions. Integrating computational optimization into diagnostic development is essential for strengthening preparedness against emerging zoonotic threats.
Rezaeitaleshmahalleh, M.; Masoumi, S.; Debalme, E.; Sundt, T. M.; Aranki, S. F.; Shin, B.; Nezami, F. R.
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Background: Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) remains the standard of care for complex multivessel and left main coronary artery disease. However, current preoperative planning remains largely subjective, relying on qualitative interpretation of coronary CT angiography (CCTA), operator-dependent stenosis grading, and fragmented multi-software workflows. Invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR), the reference standard for physiologic lesion assessment, is infrequently acquired preoperatively, leaving distal anastomosis planning without an objective hemodynamic basis. Methods: We developed a fully automated, AI-powered platform that converts routine CCTA into a patient-specific CABG planning workflow through five integrated modules: nnU-Net based segmentation of coronary lumen and calcification; quantitative morphological and topological characterization generating more than thirty descriptors; automated stenosis detection using a local reference-radius formulation; a nine-point composite scoring framework for distal anastomosis site selection incorporating luminal caliber, landing-zone length, calcification burden, distal perfusion reserve, and bifurcation proximity; and interactive virtual graft construction coupled to a distributed reduced-order solver for pre- and post-bypass FFR estimation. Results: Lumen segmentation achieved a mean Dice similarity coefficient of 0.96 {+/-} 0.01, whereas calcium segmentation achieved 0.73 {+/-} 0.15 on the held-out cohort. Platform-derived FFR demonstrated strong agreement with invasively measured FFR (r=0.96, mean absolute relative difference 1.73 {+/-}1.42%) across the evaluated lesions, supporting the physiologic validity of the reduced-order hemodynamic solver. End-to-end analysis from raw CCTA to hemodynamic assessment and virtual graft planning was completed in approximately seven minutes per case on a standard workstation, representing a substantial reduction in processing time compared with conventional multi-tool and CFD-based workflows. Conclusions: The proposed platform demonstrates the feasibility of rapid, reproducible, and physiology-informed CABG planning using routine CCTA. By integrating anatomical characterization, automated target-site analysis, virtual graft construction, and reduced-order hemodynamic assessment into a single workflow, the framework provides objective, quantitative surgical decision support compatible with routine clinical workflows. Keywords: Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG); Fractional flow reserve (FFR); Coronary CT angiography (CCTA); Surgical planning
Cresson, J.; Pere, M.; Szafranska, A.
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This work focuses on the global and partial identification problem for fractional differential equations. We provide a general numerical procedure based on global and local optimization algorithms with two refinements for biological systems that ensure solution positivity and homogeneous parameter units. The method is applied to a new fractional model of Dengue outbreak called the Fractional Homogeneous Nishiura (FHN) model, calibrated using data of newly infected people in Cape Verde. We show that our identification method yields a better fit between data and model solutions than previous approaches and that our FHN model captures the dynamics of Dengue more closely than existing systems.
Reteig, L. C.; Woloshin, S.; Maglione, P. J.; Farmer, J. R.; Ong, M.-S.
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Patients with primary immunodeficiency (PID) often face prolonged diagnostic delays and may increasingly turn to large language models (LLMs) to interpret their symptoms during this period. We evaluated whether an LLM could recognize PID from symptom descriptions derived from interviews with 21 PID patients. In a prior study, we showed that GPT-4o identified PID in 96% of cases when prompted with physician-written patient histories (Rider et al., JACI, 2024). Here, when prompted with symptom descriptions in patients' own words, GPT-5 identified PID in only 7 cases (33%), although it more broadly suggested immune system issues in 18 cases (81%). The gap between these findings indicates that LLMs are sensitive to the language and framing of symptom descriptions, performing substantially worse when patients describe their own symptoms in everyday language than when clinicians summarize patient histories in structured medical terms. This study underscores the need to carefully evaluate how LLMs are used in patient-facing applications.
Hoang, N.; Yang, H.; Uddin, M. N.; Zhong, J.; Faiyaz, A.; Singh, M. V.; Boodoo, Z. D.; Sutton, K. R.; Wang, H. Z.; Sahin, B.; Khan, M. W.; Weber, M. T.; Yuan, C.; Chen, L.; Schifitto, G.
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Background: Despite the success of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), vascular comorbidities, including cerebrovascular disease, are more prominent in people living with HIV (PLWH) compared to people without HIV (PWOH). However, quantitative assessments of cerebrovascular morphometry and their associations with cognitive outcomes in the context of HIV are still limited. In this study, we explore this missing link. Methods: Magnetic Resonance Angiography (MRA) data, blood markers, and neurocognitive assessments were collected from 73 PWOH subjects (male: 57, female: 16; age: 53 {+/-} 16) and 99 PLWH subjects (male: 66, female: 30, age: 53 {+/-} 11). Vessel morphometric features were quantified using intraCranial Artery Feature Extraction (iCafe) to investigate associations between vessel morphometry, markers of monocytes, endothelial cell activation, and cognitive performance. Results: HIV status predicted a lower total number of branches ({beta} = -0.224, p = 0.001, d = -0.517) and shorter total distal length ({beta} = -0.173, p = 0.021, d = -0.370) with a moderate effect size. Total branch number was found to be negatively associated with plasma levels of monocyte markers (sCD14: r = -0.167, p = 0.033; sCD163: r = -0.157, p = 0.045) and positively correlated with white matter cerebral blood flow (r = 0.550; p [≤] 0.05). HIV status was the strongest predictor of overall cognitive performance in ANCOVA model ({beta} = -0.219, p = 0.006, d = -0.453). Conclusions: Our results suggest that cognitive impairment in PLWH is associated with vessel morphology metrics. Monocyte immune activation may contribute to changes in vessel morphology.